WORLD OIL PRICES (October 26-30, 2020 trading days)
Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by almost US$3.00/bbl. Both MOPS gasoline and diesel have also decreased; MOPS gasoline by about US$2.50 per barrel and MOPS diesel by around US$2.40 per barrel.
Reasons for the Adjustment
-
The 23-country OPEC+ alliance is in the midst of a 7.7 million b/d production cut accord that is scheduled to shrink to 5.8 million b/d from January 2021 through April 2022, in anticipation of improving demand as the world recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. The curbs initially started at 9.7 million b/d for May-July this year.
-
The producer group's next meeting is scheduled by end-November.
-
-
Aramco Trading's president and CEO Ibrahim Al-Buainain said that crude prices will likely stay in the $38/b to $43/b price range going forward. Prices are seen to draw some support from reductions on the supply side of the market, such as drops in US shale production and the hurricane season in the US Gulf.
-
He also said that less efficient refineries were already suffering before the pandemic, particularly the pressure of the new IMO2020 regulations reducing the sulfur content of bunker fuel for ships on the high seas. But the pandemic has seen integrated refineries take a hit from the low margins for jet fuel and diesel.
-
-
Crude oil futures were lower in Asian trading as prices are hit by what analysts described as the "perfect storm" of increased supply from Libya.
-
Reuters reported that Libyan oil production reached 680,000 b/d, marking a 36% increase from 500,000 b/d earlier this month. The latest increase is accounted to the lifting of force majeure on the country's oil facilities after a ceasefire was agreed by warring parties.
-
- Crude oil futures resumed their downwtrend as Europe took over, with alarm over the gathering pace of the continent's second wave of COVID-19 growing.
- France and Germany both announced nationwide lockdowns on October 28 in a bid to stem a rising tide of new infections.
-
Sentiment in the Asian gasoline market stayed subdued in early October 29 trading, even as crack spreads strengthened following a more-than-expected draw-down in US gasoline inventories.
-
According to data released by the US-EIA on October 28, total US gasoline stocks fell by 890,000 barrels at 226.12 million barrels.
-
-
Sources noted that supply in November continues to be heavy, with weak demand still weighing on fundamentals.
-
The Asian gasoil market remained quiet mid-week owing to continued regional low demand signals, with uncertainty over the COVID-19 situation impacting the demand outlook.
-
Renewed COVID-19 lockdown in France and Germany may signal a continued closed arbitrage for East of Suez gasoil to Europe over the winter. This does not signal any immediate shift to Asian supply balances but does dampen prospects for a boost to middle distillate demand heading into the winter season.
FOREX: Philippine peso appreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.19 to P48.40 from P48.58 in previous week.
Other recommended reference sites:
• http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
• http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
• https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price
DOMESTIC OIL PRICES
The oil companies implemented their price adjustments effective today, 03 November 2020. Gasoline, diesel and kerosene have decreased; gasoline by P0.80 per liter, diesel by P0.85 per liter and kerosene by P0.70 per liter.
These resulted to the total year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net decrease of P5.47/liter for gasoline, P11.11/liter for diesel and P14.29/liter for kerosene.
For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.
_______
For more information, call the
Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph