Oil Monitor as of 04 May 2021

Date published: May 4, 2021

WORLD OIL PRICES (April 26-30, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by around US$0.05/bbl. MOPS gasoline also had marginal increase of US$0.02 per barrel so as diesel by nearly US$0.90 per barrel.

Reasons for the Adjustment

  • In the last week of April, buying sentiment for June-loading cargoes heading to Asia began weakening, largely attributed to the uncertainty of oil demand and refinery runs in India that was caused by the spiking COVID-19 cases.
    • New restrictions in India could see global demand contract by 200,000 to 400,000 b/d this year.
  • Meanwhile, Chinese demand is expected to take centerstage in the trading of July-loading cargoes, as other key Asian economies India, Japan and Thailand struggle to curb a rampaging COVID-19 pandemic from throttling oil and product demand.
    • ANZ Research analysts stated that oil demand is recovering well in the US, Europe and China.
  • On supply, traders said spot trade activity is expected to remain subdued, with more oil supplies following the decision by OPEC+ to ease production cuts, while India and Japan impose pandemic-induced lockdowns.
    • Saudi Arabia will bring back 350,000 b/d crude production of the 1 million b/d (MMB/D) voluntary cut in June.
    • An increase in oil supplies by the OPEC+ alliance from May onwards is likely to help lower oil prices, aiding Asian refiners who had been juggling slashed production and spiralling prices over the past few months.
    • The group of oil producers are expected to stand by their decision to increase oil supplies in a gradual manner despite key oil importing nations dealing with fresh COVID-19 outbreaks.
  • The Asian gasoline market held steady at the end of the trading week, amid continued support from the West in light of an unexpected US gasoline stock build.
    • Chinese gasoline exports in May expected to fall to around 1.29 million MT, indicating a 23.2% decline on the month.
  • The Asian gasoil/diesel market remained at a stalemate as participants continued to voice mixed opinions about the near-term outlook. Some are saying that increasing hopes for East-West arbitrage flows were holding up the market, while others maintained a more wary stance amid demand uncertainty and fluctuations in supply.
FOREX: Philippine peso appreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.03 to P48.35 from P48.37 in previous week.
 

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 04 May 2021, the oil companies implemented the price increase in domestic oil products. Gasoline has increased by P0.20 per liter; both diesel and kerosene increased P0.35 per liter.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at total net increase of P7.80/liter for gasoline, P6.05/liter for diesel and P5.30/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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