Oil Monitor as of 18 May 2021

Date published: May 18, 2021

WORLD OIL PRICES (May 10-14, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by almost US$0.20/bbl. MOPS gasoline has also decreased by US$1.15 per barrel. On the contrary, MOPS diesel has increased by nearly US$0.65 per barrel.

Reasons for the Adjustment

  • The impact of the second wave of COVID-19 in India is reportedly starting to take a heavy toll on oil demand. Platts latest data noted that India’s April oil product demand was 300,000 b/d or 6.1% lower from March. Thus, Platts Analytics has revised the 2021 demand growth forecast for India to 350,000 b/d –down from 440,000 b/d prior to the emergence of the latest wave.
  • Supply concerns in Asia have subsided following the restart of Colonial Pipeline, while demand worries came to the fore amid a massive surge in coronavirus cases in India.
    • Deaths and infections in India reportedly remain alarmingly high, but the trend appeared to have stabilized over the past two weeks.
    • The negative impact on oil demand is estimated to remain severe until June, but could begin to improve moving into the third quarter of 2021.
  • Crude prices have steadily declined as investors hit the pause button with super commodity cycle trade. Inflationary fears have unnerved some investors into taking some profit off the table with their energy trades.
  • The Asian gasoline market looked set to retreat towards the end of the trading week May 14, as support from the West faded with the restart of the US Colonial Pipeline late- 13 May, and as supply from India and Taiwan were seen to support the rising inventory in Singapore.
    • The pipeline, which supplies about 45% of all the gasoline and diesel fuel consumed on the East Coast, had been shut since May 7 due to ransomware attack.
    • Also, supply-side pressures exerted downside pressure on sentiment as well as refineries in India and Taiwan were seen offering loadings for June and July to December, respectively.
    • Enterprise Singapore data showed lght distillate stocks rose 4% to 12.38 million barrels in the week ended May 11, rising for the first time in three weeks and breaching the 12 million-barrel mark amid an uptick in blendstock inflows from the Middle East.
  • Regional demand, particularly from Southeast Asian countries, was slowing down in the Asian gasoil/diesel market while supply is sufficient.
    • The resurgence in COVID-19 cases as well as a traditionally low demand period during the second quarter were factors taking a toll on sentiment. Market participants said local governments were starting to reimpose movement restrictions, hampering demand, and this could translate to more surplus barrels of gasoil spilling onto the spot market in the near term.

 

FOREX: Philippine peso appreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.17 to P47.84 from P48.01 in previous week.
 

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 18 May 2021, the oil companies implemented the price adjustment in domestic oil products. Gasoline has decreased by P0.20-P0.35 per liter, while on the opposite, diesel has increased by P0.20 per liter. No movement has been effected on the price of kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at total net increase of P8.35/liter for gasoline and P6.95/liter for diesel. Kerosene remains at a total net increase of P6.00/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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