Oil Monitor as of 30 July 2024

Date published: July 30, 2024

WORLD OIL PRICES (July 22-26, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by about $2.90 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased week-on-week by about $2.40, $2.20 and $2.00 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil futures fell on weaker US economic data, weak Chinese demand despite rate cut and unexpected contraction in South Korea’s Q2 GDP creating demand concerns in Asia.
    • On July 25, the People's Bank of China cut the country's one-year medium-term lending facility by 20 basis points, but this move failed to spur demand, and the sentiment remained bearish.
    • South Korea's second-quarter gross domestic product unexpectedly contracted 0.2% on the quarter, contrasting with market expectations of a 0.1% expansion. The weakness was attributed to sluggish domestic demand.
  • The OPEC+ alliance's biggest overproducers - Iraq, Russia and Kazakhstan, agreed on July 24 to gradually reduce production by a collective 2.284 million b/d between now and September 2025 after an overproduction in H1 2024.
    • OPEC+ is also scheduled to gather virtually for its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting Aug. 1, with consensus suggesting that OPEC+ is unlikely to alter its oil output.
  • The Asian gasoline complex was firm as cargoes were still moving to Persian Gulf due to favorable margins and demand was seen stable amid lower crude prices.
    • Further support to prices came from shutdown of RFCC unit at Dalin in Taiwan’s CPC refinery.
    • Meanwhile, refineries are coming online from maintenance replenishing supplies in the region in the near term, and Indonesia's imports of light distillates fell 13.38% on the month and 11.60% on the year to 1.877 million mt amid lower naphtha and LPG inflows.
  • Asian gasoil/diesel complex edged higher on weak crude prices while Russia is considering another ban on diesel exports. However, the complex was still weighed down by seasonal demand lull and supply surplus in the region amid unfavorable arbitrage economics.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.03 to P58.42 from P58.39 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 30 July 2024, the oil companies implemented a decrease of P0.75/liter in gasoline, P0.85/liter in diesel and P0.80/liter in kerosene.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of gasoline and diesel stands at a net increase of P9.60/liter and P6.85/liter, respectively. On the other hand, kerosene has a total net decrease of P0.30/liter.

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1 Asia Pacific 26 July 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:

 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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