Oil Monitor as of 30 January 2024

Date published: January 31, 2024

WORLD OIL PRICES (January 22 -26, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $2.00 per barrel. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased by about $5.40, $1.70, and $0.30 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude prices rise on escalating geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and Russia, which have overshadowed the impact from reports of resumption of Libyan production.
    • Though perceived risks from the Red Sea crisis are on the rise, there have been no major drops in supply so far, with containership transits down much more than oil tankers and Oil in-transit volumes have yet to show any structural shift related to rerouting of ships away from the Red Sea.
    • Geopolitical risk on the rise in Europe as well after a major fire broke out at Rosneft's 240,000 b/d Tuapse refinery on Russia's southern Black Sea coast early Jan. 25 following a new suspected Ukrainian drone strike.
  • The Asian gasoline complex strengthened, tracking a widening US RBOB-Brent crack on the back of refinery issues in the US and despite a rise in US gasoline stocks while firm demand expected from Vietnam.
    • US gasoline stocks increased by 4.912 million barrels on the week to 252.977 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 19, according to US EIA data.
    • Gasoline demand in Vietnam firmed up ahead of the upcoming Tet Lunar New Year festivities, and in February ahead of a planned refinery turnaround.
  • The Asian ultra-low sulfur gasoil/diesel swap crack was seen edging lower with upside capped by softer regional demand even as clean product tankers continue to divert from the Red Sea amid rising risk premiums.
  • Gasoil cracks are expected to remain robust in the near term, as supply-side factors continue to drive prices. But the premium it commands over gasoline could flip into discount in May with the US summer driving season underpinning demand for the latter.
  • The Russian gasoil exports, meanwhile, are on the rise and topped pre-ban levels in the first week of January at 1.1 million b/d.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.40 to P56.30 from P55.90 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 30 January 2024, the oil companies implemented a per liter increase in the price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene by P2.80, P1.30 and P0.45, respectively.

The total adjustment of gasoline and diesel stands at a net increase of P4.40/liter and P2.90/liter, respectively.
Kerosene, on the other hand, has a net decrease for the year of P0.05/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:

 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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