Oil Monitor as of 10 July 2019

Date published: July 10, 2019

WORLD OIL PRICES  (July 1-5, 2019 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by almost US$1.75 per barrel. MOPS diesel has also decreased by nearly US$0.85 per barrel but on the opposite MOPS gasoline has increased by nearly $0.90 per barrel.

Reasons for the Adjustment

  • Crude prices fell in Asia on thin trade, weighted down by EIA data report showing smaller-than-expected draw on U.S. crude inventory stockpiles and worries on global economic growth. U.S. weak oil demand could be a sign of slowing economy.

  • OPEC+ has officially agreed to a 9-month extension of its current production cut agreement, which was preferably anticipated. The announcement did little to change the future crude prices, with Brent futures slipping to around $62-63/Bbl. However, if Saudi Arabia, Russia and UAE, OPEC+ members with most spare capacities stick to their committed limits, balances could tighten supply more than previously expected.

  • Reduced production and exports from Iran and Venezuela also add up to overall supply tightness. Fears of slowing oil demand growth resulting from uncertainties surrounding the China-U.S. Trade development.

  • Iranian exports have declined fast, with its exports averaging 450MB/D in the second half of 2019- about 1.8MMB/D lower year on year. Worsening economic situation could push Iran to seek diplomatic negotiations with the US or in the other direction towards a military response. Either outcome could dramatically change the supply and price outlook. Extending the current production agreement is the conservative move for OPEC+, and sets the stage for higher prices later in the year on tighter balances and the impact of IMO 2020.

  • Oil futures rose on Friday as tensions over Iran and an extension to output cuts by OPEC and its allies boosted prices, but mixed economic data limited the rally.

FOREX:  Week-on-week value of Philippine Peso appreciated against the US dollar by P0.25 to P51.14, from P51.39 in the previous week. 

Other recommended reference sites:

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES      

Effective 9 July 2019, most of the oil companies implemented a per liter price increase/decrease on petroleum products. Gasoline has increased by P0.25 while diesel and kerosene have decreased by P0.40 and P0.35, respectively.

Year-to-date adjustments stand at a net increase of P5.15/liter for gasoline, P3.30/liter for diesel and P1.75/liter for kerosene.  

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Pages