Oil Monitor as of 03 September 2019

Date published: September 4, 2019

WORLD OIL PRICES  (August 26-30, 2019 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by almost US$0.60 per barrel. MOPS gasoline and diesel have also decreased, gasoline by around US$0.15 per barrel and diesel by nearly US$0.35 per barrel.

Reasons for the Adjustment

  • Concerns of slowing economic growth, stemming largely from the trade dispute between the US and China, have been weighing on crude futures, but balances appear to be tightening. 

  • Fundamentals still constructive. Refinery runs will have their second peak in Nov/Dec as winter and IMO demand kicks in, crude stock draws will be substantial, plus monetary policy easing, geopolitical risks, and aggressive Saudi oil policy all supportive for oil. Saudi Arabia is sending clear signals that they are not happy with oil prices. We would not be surprised to hear of more OPEC+ cuts talks at the Sept 12 JMMC meeting.

  • In the face of macroeconomic headwinds and tightening fundamentals, prices will move higher but will continue to discount fundamentals, as markets put greater weight on a weakening demand trajectory and the ongoing need for OPEC restraint.

  • The Asian gasoil market moved sideways on Thursday as market participants awaited fresh pricing cues. A Singapore-based trader said Wednesday that they are receiving conflicting market information in both supplies and demand.  He also added that China demand is supportive but regional demand may not perform too well.

  • Sentiment in the Asian gasoline market remained firm at the end of the trading week, as additional prompt demand in the region continued to pull overall fundamentals upwards while easing trade tensions between the US and China helped to stabilize international crude markets.

 

FOREX:   Week-on-week value of Philippine Peso appreciated against the US dollar by    P0.04 to P52.28, from P52.32 in the previous week.

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DOMESTIC OIL PRICES      

Effective 1-3 September 2019, most of the oil companies implemented a price decrease of P0.10/liter for gasoline, P0.10-P0.20/liter for diesel and P0.15/liter for kerosene.

Year-to-date adjustments stand at a net increase of P4.66/liter for gasoline, P3.27/liter for diesel and P1.26/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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