Oil Monitor as of 28 January 2020

Date published: January 28, 2020

WORLD OIL PRICES  (January 20-24, 2020 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by almost US$01.20 per barrel.  Both MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also decreased, gasoline by around US$1.30 per barrel and diesel by nearly US$1.50 per barrel. 

Reasons for the Adjustment

  • Crude prices continued to slide this week with Brent futures closing at a seven-week low of $62.04/Bbl. Middle Eastern grade had been weakening recently as the trading cycle moved into the start of the refinery maintenance season in March/April.

  • Despite increased scrutiny of the long term prospects for shale production, U.S. crude output hit 13 MMB/D for the first time two weeks ago, underlining risks of near-term oversupply. The oil market’s weakness also reflects the unwinding of part of the Middle Eastern risk premium as tensions over the U.S.-China initial trade deal subside. 

  • Oil prices continuous to slip as the market focused on the risk of weaker Chinese and global oil demand amid the coronavirus outbreak in China. The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak has stroked concern over Chinese economic growth and oil demand. 

    • A major factor in the overall impact of the virus on oil markets could be the extent to which it disrupts travel ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, analysts said. Notably, as of Wednesday the World Health Organization has not recommended any restrictions to travel or trade.

    • Crude oil prices extended decline in the US midmorning trading Wednesday as oversupply concerns and the potential downside demand impact of a fast-spreading global flu outbreak weighed on prices.

    • The outbreak could reduce global oil demand by 260,000 b/d, including a 170,000 b/d loss of jet fuel demand if air travel is impacted, analysts said in a report late Tuesday. This in turn translates into a $3/b impact on benchmark oil prices, although this could push prices lower, they further said.

  • The Asian gasoline market saw renewed strength prior to the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of the trading week, as a less-than-expected US gasoline stock build coupled with stable regional demand provided support to derivative and physical gasoline crack spreads.
  • The Asian gasoil market remained range-bound, and may have bottomed out after a slump since the start of the year.  Fundamentals in the Asian gasoil market held largely steady at the end of week Friday ahead of the Lunar New Year festivities, which will see extended holidays in some parts of the region.

FOREX:  Week-on-week value of Philippine Peso depreciated against the US dollar by P0.24 to P50.96 from P50.72 in the previous week.  

Other recommended reference sites:

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES      

Effective January 27-28,2020, most of the oil companies implemented a price decrease on petroleum products. The price of gasoline has decreased by P0.30/liter, diesel by P0.40/liter and P0.35/liter for kerosene. 

Year-to-date adjustments stand at a net decrease of P1.25/liter for gasoline, P1.90/liter for diesel and P1.99/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Pages