Oil Monitor as of 01 April 2020

Date published: April 2, 2020

WORLD OIL PRICES (March 23-27, 2020 trading days)

Dubai crude decreased week-on-week by more than S$3/bbl. MOPS gasoline and diesel decreased as well by more than US$6/bbl and US$1/bbl, respectively, over the same comparative period.

Reasons for the Adjustment

  • Unsold Middle East sour crude, weighing on market sentiment as plenty of spot market volume still on offer. However, buyers are currently not in a hurry to procure excessive cargoes, which Middle East producers set to maximize output in coming months.
    • Demand for Middle East sour crude grades has been muted lately, resulting in an oversupply of May-loading cargoes in the spot market;
    • Buying appetite from refiners in Asia was receding;
    • Several regular spot market buyers have deferred or canceled their monthly purchases on narrowing product margins as the demand outlook worsens amid the escalating containment efforts to curb the coronavirus pandemic.
  • Looking forward, Asia’s oil demand is expected to see some recovery in 2H20 due to various stimulus measures introduced by various governments in the region and the outbreak starts to ease.
  • The weakness of gasoline and kero/jets reflected by the sharp declines of product cracks (vs Dubai crude) for the two products in Singapore.
  • Fundamentals in the Asian gasoline complex remained bearish as more spot cargoes in the region emerged.
  • US refineries slashed runs and have expanded turnaround time in response to sharply lower domestic demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
  • Extensive measures to combat the spread of the coronavirus outbreak India and Indonesia added a gloomy gasoline market this week.
  • While gasoil/diesel have remained fairly robust compared to other products, overall gasoil market remains soggy as ample volumes continue to make their way into the market.
  • Looking forward, stability for gasoil/diesel seen is owed to expectations of tighter supplies in the months ahead, which has lent a steadying hand to the product over the others.
    • Apart from less gasoil export volumes seen from China, traders have also said that a combination of refinery run-cuts, as well as the upcoming spring turnaround season in the region, will aid in helping the region to work through the supply glut caused by the demand destruction from coronavirus.

FOREX:Philippine peso appreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.10 to 51.06, from P51.16 in previous week.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Oil companies implemented its fifth consecutive rollback on March 30 – April 1, 2020 by P2.00/liter for gasoline, P0.50/liter for diesel and P1.95/liter for kerosene.

Year-to-date adjustments stand at a net decrease of P14.72/liter for gasoline, P13.39/liter for diesel and P18.20/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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