Oil Monitor as of 20 April 2021

Date published: April 20, 2021

WORLD OIL PRICES (April 12-16, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by about US$1.65/bbl. Both MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also increased: gasoline by around US$1.60 per barrel and diesel by nearly US$1.95 per barrel.

Reasons for the Adjustment

  • Oil demand concerns persist amid the COVID-19 outbreaks but were still several volumes of Middle East crudes tendered for June loading, mostly for China and India.
  • Analysts averred that ‘markets now appear to be revisiting the scenario of tightening balances and that inventory draws are seen over the summer as global demand accelerates’. This caused crude prices to regain some bullish momentum during the week as Brent futures closed at $66.94/b on April 15 – the highest since March 15.
    • WTI crude is still poised to continue to rise higher on an improving crude demand outlook.
    • Crude oil futures ticked higher in Asia as signs of demand recovery in the US and China boosted market sentiment.
    • Positive data from China showing economic recovery gaining pace is also boosting optimism about returning demand after the COVID-19 lockdowns last year crushed fuel consumption.
  • OPEC Oil Market Report in April projected oil demand in the second half of 2021 to be positively impacted by a stronger economic rebound, supported by stimulus programs and a further easing of COVID-19 lockdown measures, amid acceleration in the vaccination rollout, largely in the OECD region.
    • Thus, oil stockpiles should continue to diminish even as OPEC+ revives some of its reduced output over the next three months.​
  • For gasoline in Asia, the market was supported by a string of healthy economic data from the West, propped up by the US Gasoline-Brent crack that recorded its highest day-on-day increase during the month.
    • The Singapore RON 92 vs. Dubai crack has moved sideways since reaching a 13-month high of $9.22/b on April 6, settling at $8.73/b on April 15.​
  • Gasoil/diesel cracks were rangebound1 over the past week, managing to consolidate recent gains. Gasoil cracks have seen a sharp recovery of $2/b since the start of the month and reached a five-week high of $6.12/b on April 12.
  • Market analysts see the following reasons that could help improve the gasoil market.
    • Heavy refinery outages in Europe and Asia are tightening supply
    • West-bound movement on new build VLCC helping to shift excess volumes out from East of Suez.
    • Agricultural gasoil demand in the region remain high prior to the start of the Monsoon season around June-July.​​​​​
 
FOREX: Philippine peso appreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.07 to P48.50 from P48.57 in previous week.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 20 April 2021, the oil companies implemented the price increase in domestic oil products. Gasoline has increased by P0.60 per liter, diesel by P0.70 per liter and kerosene by P0.85 per liter.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at total net increase of P7.15/liter for gasoline, P5.35/liter for diesel and P4.30/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Rangebound (generally of market prices) not straying outside a particular range.

 

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