Oil Monitor as of 26 October 2021

Date published: October 29, 2021

WORLD OIL PRICES (October 18-22, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by almost US$0.90/bbl. MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also increased by nearly US$3.00 per barrel and US$ 0.75 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude prices continued to strengthen with Europe Brent front month breaking through $85/b in the middle of this week, reaching the highest since October 2018 amid soaring prices of nearly all commodities. The strength is supported by recovering demand, particularly in Asia, which has been outpacing supply growth cautiously managed by OPEC+.
     
  • Asian gasoline fundamental continues to strengthen on increasing regional demand and tightening supply. Easing COVID-19 waves, rising vaccination rates and booming self-driving in South Asia during festival season continue to support gasoline demand. Re-opening of borders and resumption of interstate travel in Southeast Asia also added to bullish market sentiment.

o On the supply side, lower gasoline exports from China are likely to persist through Q4 as several refineries of national oil companies have cut their export plans to fill the supply vacuum caused by lower runs from independent refineries.

  • Asian gasoil/diesel market continues to stay elevated by incremental regional demand amid tight supply with lesser exports from key Asia supply centers. We estimate China to cut gasoil exports to 200,000 b/d in Q4 from 245,000 b/d in Q3 as oil majors will echo several announcements made recently by Beijing asking all national companies in energy sector to guarantee energy supply at all costs.
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FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.11 to P50.80 from P50.70 in previous week.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 26 October 2021, the oil companies implemented a price increase in domestic oil products, i.e. P1.10-P1.15 per liter for gasoline, P0.35-P0.45 per liter for diesel and P0.55 per liter for kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a total net increase of P20.80/liter for gasoline, P18.45/liter for diesel and P16.04/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global

 

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