Oil Monitor as of 30 November 2021

Date published: December 1, 2021

WORLD OIL PRICES (November 22-26, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by almost US$2.30/bbl. MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also decreased by nearly US$ 5.30 per barrel and US$ 2.90 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil prices gained as market turned focus to upcoming the OPEC+ meeting following the coordinated Strategic Petroleum Releases (SPR) from the US and oil consuming majors with less than expected volumes. In a bid to contain high gasoline prices and inflation, the Biden administration announced on Nov. 23 to release 50 million barrels from SPR in coming months. The release includes 32 million barrels that will be exchanged “over next several months” and “returned in years ahead”, in addition to 18 million barrels sold in coming months that were already legislated by Congress to be sold by end of 2022. India, South Korea, and UK announced to liquidate 5.0, 3.8 and 1.5 million barrels respectively while China and Japan agreed to the release without giving details on volume.
     
  • With market turning focus to OPEC+ response, Brent-Dubai Exchange of Future Swaps (EFS) spread remained stable staying above the $4/b mark but could come under pressure as rising coronavirus cases and subsequent lockdowns may push more arbitrage barrels from West into Asia. This could further pressure Middle Eastern sour crude complex and lower the spot differentials and Dubai intermonth spread.
     
  • Asian gasoline market slid further this week on rising supply in the region particularly from China and Europe amid waning demand. Gasoline exports from China are set to increase in December following approval of additional export quotas and waning domestic demand.
  • Asian gasoil/ diesel market extended declines from the week of Nov. 15 on shrinking arbitrage to send barrels to the West and increasing supply from South Korea and India. The incentive to send cargoes to the West, as measured by EFS, fell sharply by $4.30/b on week to minus $12.89/bon enhanced restrictive measures in Europe diverting the swing barrels from India and Persian Gulf to Asia. Additionally, improving economic conditions in South Korea and India is encouraging refiners to increase runs and plug the gap caused by reduced gasoil exports from China.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.42 to P50.66 from P50.25 in previous week.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 30 November 2021, the oil companies implemented a price decrease in domestic oil products. Gasoline has decreased by P1.10-P1.20 per liter as well as diesel by P0.60-P0.70 per liter and kerosene by P0.50 per liter.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a total net increase of P18.10/liter for gasoline, P15.70/liter for diesel and P13.19/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global

 

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