Oil Monitor as of 28 May 2024

Date published: May 28, 2024

WORLD OIL PRICES (May 20-24, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $0.15 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased week-on-week by about $0.15, $0.30 and $0.05 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil futures fell amid US inventory build and bearish demand sentiment outweighing supply risks.
    • Based on the 22 May data of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels to 458.8 million barrels in the week ended May 17. It also served as a sign validating the weakness in physical demand for oil.
    • Demand concerns spread following a string of US Federal Reserve comments that indicated a aggressive tone and pushed the US dollar higher.
  • While markets were still monitoring for an impact from the death of Iran's president and health concerns surrounding the Saudi king, the news had failed to rally prices, reinforcing current bearish market sentiment.
  • Markets were also awaiting OPECs decision on output cuts. The bearish market fundamentals pointed to a likely full extension of the OPEC+ supply cuts at the upcoming June meeting, rather than a partial rollover.
  • The Asian gasoline complex softened tracking a narrowing US RBOB-Brent crack and despite a drop in US gasoline inventories.
  • Market participants said that demand across Asia is poor, citing a widening East-West spread that reflected that Asian gasoline barrels were much cheaper than European barrels.
    • Japan's domestic demand for gasoline may also fall due to declining real household income.
  • The Asian gasoil/diesel complex's market sentiment was bearish on long supply, as market participants anticipated increased supply from Chinese refineries after their return from planned maintenance and lower domestic demand from India amid the approaching monsoon.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.45 to P58.09 from P57.64 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

The depreciation of peso against the US dollar outweighed oil prices’ week-on-week marginal decrease, which caused the reverse movement in domestic oil prices.

Effective 28 May 2024, the oil companies implemented an increase in the prices of gasoline and diesel by P0.40/liter and kerosene by P0.30/liter.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of gasoline and diesel stand at net increase of P7.55/liter and P4.85/liter, respectively. Kerosene, on the other hand, has a net decrease of P1.05 per liter.

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1 Asia Pacific 24 May 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

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For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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