Oil Monitor as of 29 March 2022

Date published: March 29, 2022

WORLD OIL PRICES (March 21-25,2022 trading days trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by around US$ 8.00/bbl. MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have both increased by about US$8.00 per barrel and US$ 21.00 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • After cooling off in the previous week the crude prices rebounded and rallied again this week largely in response of the growing pressure on European Union (EU) to ban Russian energy imports. The US and its European allies are expected to levy further sanctions against Russia later this week, however the 27 European Union foreign ministers had disagreed on imposing sanctions on Russian energy imports majorly due to opposition from Germany.
    • ​The rally was also extended due to supply fears amid Houthi militants targeting Aramco's Yas ref refinery resulting in temporary reduction of its output and a counter seasonal crude inventory draw reported by EIA in the US. Crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile with upside risk should the Western nations further tighten sanctions on Russia.

 

  • The strength in Asian gasoline remains even as China gasoline demand is likely to remain weak on renewed COVID outbreak in the country. S&P Global Commodity Analytics has lowered the China’s gasoline demand by 400,000 b/d in March and 250,000 b/d in April due to the tightened measures. Upcoming Ramadan and higher driving season would further support higher driving activity and gasoline demand.
    • ​Asia's fundamentals remain strong, and demand is expected to rise as regional economies continue to open up. Travelers with a negative COVID test report will no longer be subject to quarantine in Vietnam, while Japan has eliminated all COVID restrictions as of March 21. Singapore and Malaysia have also declared that vaccinated tourists will be able to travel without a quarantine starting April 1.
  • On the Asian gasoil/diesel market, fears of catastrophic fuel shortages in Europe and Africa have driven the diesel market even tighter, with stock outs conceivable in the near future, as speculation about EU sanctions on Russian oil imports grows. Russia exports about 0.7 million barrels of diesel per day to Europe, and the market's reliance on Russian diesel would put it in jeopardy if EU sanctions were applied.
  • On the demand side, the Asian gasoil market remains well supported as regional economies open further even as cases count increase in few countries. Both South Korea and Vietnam recently eased restrictions despite a steady rise in cases.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.03 to P52.35 from P52.32 in previous week.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 29 March 2022, the oil companies implemented a price increase in domestic oil products. Gasoline has increased by P3.40 per liter, diesel by P8.65 per liter, while kerosene by P9.40 per liter.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net increase of P18.30/liter for gasoline, P27.85/liter for diesel and P25.75/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

 

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