Oil Monitor as of 04 May 2022

Date published: May 4, 2022

WORLD OIL PRICES (April 25-29, 2022 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by roughly US$4.55/bbl. MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel prices have also decreased by around US$2.00 and US$3.00 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Oil prices this week have been in a see-saw and bullish mode. While still lower than previous week, crude prices started to rise again later in the week following reports of crude production shut-ins in Libya cutting supply by about 500,000 b/d.
  • But crude prices cooled off after US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell signaled at 50 basis point hike in interest rates in the upcoming May meeting. The price slide was further extended after China tightened COVID-19 restrictions in parts of Shanghai, including erecting fences around apartment buildings with COVID-19 infected individuals. The fear of lockdown rose in China’s capital city Beijing after authorities started mass testing residents and workers in its most populous Chaoyang district to stamp out a surge in cases.
  • Similar price trend was observed for gasoline on reports of demand recovery, expected to be supported by the Ramadan and Eid festivities in Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as by increased mobility in the Philippines ahead of the presidential elections on May 9. Singapore's gasoline exports to Australia surged 162% on the week to 81,256 mt amid a loosening of COVID-19 restrictions in several states.
    • On the supply side, in addition to tight supplies from South Korea due to seasonal refinery maintenance and tax cuts, it is expected that Japan is also likely to trim exports in May amid an increase in domestic demand as Golden Week festivities start April 29. The Asian gasoline also got support from US gasoline markets after US gasoline stocks fell 1.57 million barrels to 230.81 million barrels, putting them 3.8% behind the five year average, as per EIA data.
  • On diesel, while generally lower than the previous week, the gasoil/diesel market reportedly manifested recovery in Asian domestic demand and renewed supply disruption fears from Russia.
    • Indonesia's gasoil imports soared 57.68% on the month in February, ahead of maintenance at the Balongan refinery that reduced domestic output as the country opened and eased movement restrictions before the holy month of Ramadan.
    • Vietnam imported 4.8 million barrels of oil products from South Korea in March, more than tenfold increase from 347,000 barrels bought in the same period a year earlier, and up 30% from 3.7 million barrels imported in February. Reduced production of Vietnam's Nghi Son refinery has increased the nation's reliance on imported oil products.

FOREX: Philippine peso appreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.07 to P52.29 from P52.36 in previous week.  

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 03 May 2022, the oil companies implemented a price decrease in domestic oil products. Gasoline has decreased by P0.65 per liter while both diesel and kerosene decreased by P1.15 per liter.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net increase of P17.80/liter for gasoline, P30.30/liter for diesel and P23.90/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

 

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