Energy and Peak Demand Forecast

Electricity demand is the basic component of development planning as it integrates different electric power subsectors: distribution, transmission and generation. It also indicates the minimum required capacity and production in terms of watt (w) and watt-hour (Wh), respectively. 

The energy and demand forecasts for the Luzon grid is more comprehensive compared to Visayas and Mindanao grids as it comprised about 74.0 percent of the nationwide demand vis-à-vis its contribution to the major economic structural changes, being the center of industry and commerce.

View complete PDF file: 2009-2030 Power Development Plan

Disclaimer

The Transmission Development Plan (TDP) is prepared and published solely for information purposes. While NGCP, to the best of its knowledge, has used the most accurate data available, and has used utmost prudence in the use of those information, nothing in this document can be or should be taken as a recommendation in respect of any possible investment or business decision. This document does not claim to contain all the information that a prospective investor or grid user or potential participant to the electricity market, or any other person or interested parties may require for making decisions. In preparing this document it is not possible nor it is intended for NGCP to have considered the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of each person who uses this document.

In all cases, anyone proposing to rely on or use the information in this document should independently verify and check the accuracy, completeness, reliability and suitability of that information and the reports and other information relied on by NGCP in preparing this document, and should obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate experts.

In the same manner, NGCP does not make representations or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability for particular purposes of the information in this document. Persons reading or using this document acknowledge that NGCP and/or its employees shall have no liability (including liability to any person by reason of negligence or negligent misstatement) for any statements, opinions, information or matter (expressed or implied) arising out of, contained in or derived from, or for any omissions from, the information in this document, except insofar as liability under any statute of the Republic of the Philippines cannot be excluded.
 

Foreword

This Transmission Development Plan (TDP) comes at an auspicious time when much is expected from the energy sector’s newest entity.

The NATIONAL GRID CORPORATION OF THE PHILIPPINES (NGCP) has officially taken over the nationwide transmission grid operations starting January 15, 2009. As such, NGCP is tasked to operate and maintain the country’s power transmission grid.

Without a doubt, as a newly privatized company, NGCP remains at the forefront of the reforms being undertaken for the benefit of power customers nationwide as envisioned by the Electric Power Industry Reform Act of 2001.

The TDP reflects NGCP’s vision of building the strongest power grid and maintain the best power utility practice in Southeast Asia. This ten-year plan is also NGCP’s roadmap for transmission development required to meet demand growth, support incoming generation facilities and sustain its transmission business operations while ensuring compliance with technical and regulatory framework of the electric industry.

The plan will guarantee the upgrading and expansion of NGCP’s transmission facilities thus contributing to social and economic development of the nation and at the same time satisfying the stakeholders’ needs.

As a commitment for ensuring a reliable transmission system today and in the future, NGCP will be investing billions to roll out new transmission infrastructures. These transmission network upgrade and expansion initiatives are expected to bring about positive, far-reaching changes, not only in the reliability and quality of transmission service, but also in helping improve the economy of the country.

For the first time, this edition of the TDP will be released in three separate volumes. Volume 1 will cover major network upgrades and expansions resulting from centralized transmission system planning activities. Volumes 2 and 3 will cover other network developments relating to NGCP’s key service areas such as Operations and Maintenance (O&M) and System Operations (SO), respectively.

The capital expenditures (capex) outlined in the three volumes of the TDP shall form the major component of NGCP’s submissions to the Energy Regulatory Commission for the Third Regulatory Period (2011-2015). However, not all of the projects in the TDP might be included in NGCP’s forecast capex for the Regulatory Reset.

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Executive Summary

The 2010 – 2019 Distribution Development Plan (DDP) update is the 7th publication since the passage of the Electric Power Industry Reform Act of 2001 (EPIRA). In the planning period 2010-2019, the Distribution Utilities (DUs) expect an increase in peak demand of 4,258 MW from 8,856 MW in 2009 to 13,113 MW in 2019, representing an average growth of 4.0% annually. Luzon is projected to have a 3.9% annual average growth rate in peak demand, from 7,057 MW in 2010 to 9,553 MW in 2019. Visayas and Mindanao will have a higher growth rate at 4.5% and 4.4% respectively from 1,204 MW in 2010 to 1,737 MW in 2019 for Visayas, and from 1,250 MW in 2010 to 1,823 MW in 2019 for Mindanao.

In terms of aggregated energy requirements of DUs in Luzon, it is projected to grow at an annual average growth rate of 4.0%, equivalent to 16,023 GWh, over the ten-year planning period, from 40,504 GWh in 2010 to 56,527 GWh in 2019. Visayas DUs is seen to register an annual average growth rate of 4.7% or 3,132 GWh, from 6,354 GWh in 2010 to 9,486 GWh in 2019, Mindanao DUs will register a 4.4% annual average growth rate or 3,114 GWh, from 7,019 GWh in 2010 to 10,133 GWh in 2019.

Likewise, the DUs are projecting a substantial increase in the number of customers by 2019:Luzon at 12.122 million; Visayas at 3.593 million; and Mindanao at 3.267 million. These translate to an annual average growth rate of 3.01% in Luzon, 4.09% in Visayas, and 4.02% in Mindanao energy sales, respectively. Increase of number of DU’s customer is particular to the increase by 5,001,088 residential customers of the expected 5,362,752 DU customers over the planning period. Overall, from total of 13,619,247 customers in 2009, DUs are projecting a total of 18,979,999 customers by 2019.

To meet the projected increase in energy requirements over the planning horizon, an estimated 26,565 ckt-km of lines are programmed for rehabilitation and/or upgrading, 17,630 ckt-km of lines are for construction, and an additional 5,232 MVA substation capacity will be constructed. These will have corresponding investment requirements amounting to PhP 68.1 billion, broken down into: PhP 18.4 billion for electrification projects, PhP 17.2 billion for construction new lines, PhP 11.1 billion for additional substation capacity, and PhP 21.3 billion for rehabilitation of distribution lines.

View complete PDF file: Distribution Development Plan 2010–2019