Oil Monitor as of 02 June 2015

Date published: July 1, 2015

WORLD OIL PRICES  (May 25-29, 2015 trading days)  

Crude oil prices generally declined over the week’s trading, reportedly pressured by the following news: 

        • Stronger US dollar.   The dollar strengthened slightly, touching its highest level in nearly a month against other major currencies, making dollar-priced crude oil more expensive

        • Potential rise in Iraq exports.  Iraq is preparing to intensify its export by 26% to a record 3.75 million barrels per day in June.  This further heightened global oversupply worries. 

        • Speculations on OPEC output.  Market expects OPEC to maintain its output levels on their June 5 meeting, due to satisfaction at oil prices that have recovered significantly since February.  The cartel produced about 30% of world crude demand.    

However, some analysts believed that aside from tensions in the Middle East, the oil market is also being balanced by firm global demand, as it draw support from figures showing strong demand across Asia and the United States.  Specifically, Japan's Finance Ministry reported that the country’s customs-cleared crude oil imports rose 9.1 percent year-on-year to 3.62 million barrels per day in April.  In China, crude imports hit a record 7.4 million bpd last month, with healthy car sales countering a slowing economy.  Likewise in the United States, the peak summer driving season started with Memorial Day on Monday, and the American Automobile Association said road travel was expected to reach a 10-year high over the long weekend. 

In the week ending 22 May 2015, US crude inventories fell for a fourth week by 2.8 million barrels to 479.4 million, higher than analysts' expectations for a decrease of 857,000 barrels.  A decline in inventory is signifies greater demand and positive to oil prices.  

For the oil products, Asian gasoline crack recovered last Friday after several days of declines due to sharp falls in the energy complex and the US RBOB.  Yet, traders remained confident of robust regional fundamentals that would keep the Asian market supported in the near term with renewed spot demand foreseen from Asia, Africa and the Middle East ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.  

Meanwhile, Platts outlook for the Asian gasoil market stayed slightly bearish with a number of refineries expected to come back online in June and July.  Prompt demand in the Middle East, though could lend support for spot prices, is expected to be "sustainable till July." Further, exports from North Asia are likely to trend up within the Asia Pacific region, as refineries complete maintenance, and amid slow domestic consumption in China.    

Overall, Dubai crude price decreased week-on-week by about US$1.36/bbl.  Likewise, MOPS diesel and gasoline correspondingly decreased by about US$1.90 and US$2.50 per barrel respectively.  

FOREX:  Peso per US dollar rate depreciated by P0.13 to P44.65, from P44.52 in previous week. 

Other recommended reference sites:  (1) http://www.aip.com.au/pricing (2) http://www.med.govt.nz/ers/oil_pet/prices/prices.html 


Effective today, 02 June 2015, oil companies implemented a decrease of P0.50/liter for diesel, P0.55 to P0.60 per liter for gasoline and P0.60/liter for kerosene.  Table II reflected these adjustments in Metro Manila.    

Likewise, LPG rolled back on June 1 by P2.00/kg as CP LPG decreased this month by US$42.50/MT to US$429.50/MT, from US$472/MT in May.  

Year-to-date total adjustments fell to a net increase of P4.29 for gasoline and P0.91 for diesel. LPG stands at net decrease of P6.60/kg.

As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in Metro Manila beginning 2 June 2015..

Products        Price Range        Common Price
Diesel      28.85-34.65            29.90
Gasoline*      40.01-46.71            45.45
LPG, P/11-kg cylinders    478.00-658.00  

* RON 95

For more information, call the

Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email:  oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: http://www.doe.gov.ph