Oil Monitor as of 02 October 2024

Date published: October 3, 2024

WORLD OIL PRICES (September 23-27, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $0.20 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased week-on-week by about $0.10, $1.20 and $0.50 per barrel, respectively. 

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil futures settled lower amid reports that Saudi Arabia may begin raising its output as soon as December, while Libyan supply is also expected to be re-stored. Providing floor to the prices was stock draw in US inventories.
  • Fundamentals on Crude further took a hit as the Libyan oil output and exports is set to restart within days after rival political factions agreed to appoint a new central bank governor. 
  • Weakening demand fundamentals also weighed on the global crude market. 
  • Continuing its recent slate of stimulus policies, China released a 24-point strategic guideline to help improve not only employment rates, but also jobs quality. While the measures were widely seen as a positive step to support the country's ailing economy, several analysts remained cautious, noting that the full impact remained to be seen.
  • According to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration, the US commercial crude stocks fell by 4.47 million barrels to 413.04 million barrels in the week to Sept. 20.
    • US gasoline stocks declined by 1.54 million barrels to a five-week-low of 220.08 million barrels, while nationwide distillate stocks saw a seasonal draw of 2.23 million barrels. the EIA data showed. 
  • The Asian gasoline complex was weak amid poor refining margins but stable demand in the region. 
  • Based on the Joint Organization Data Initiative data released dated Sept. 22, Saudi Arabia's gasoline stocks fell 6.41% on the month and 2.70% on the year to 3.386 million mt in July, as gasoline consumption increased. 
  • The Asian ultra-low sulfur gasoil/diesel market structure strengthened driven by expectations of winter stockpiling and a slight uptick in regional demand following the monsoon season.
  • Market also attributed the strength of the diesel to the increased in confidence in the Chinese economy following a stimulus package announced by the central bank. 

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.20 to P55.94 from P55.75 in previous week. 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 01 October 2024, the oil companies implemented an increase of P0.45/liter for gasoline, P0.90/liter for diesel and P0.30/liter for kerosene. 

Year-to-date, total adjustment of gasoline and diesel stands at a net increase of P6.40/liter and P2.85/liter, respectively, while kerosene has a total net decrease of P6.05/liter. 

___________________________

1 Asia Pacific 27 September 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:

 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 8840-2187
LPG: 8840-2130
Fuels: 8840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

Pages