Oil Monitor as of 21 August 2024

Date published: August 21, 2024

 

WORLD OIL PRICES (August 12-16, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $3.60 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased week-on-week by about $2.60, $3.15 and $3.20 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil futures settled higher despite a mixed set of economic data from China and a rise in US crude stocks last week on stronger than expected US economic data.
  • China's retail sales rose 2.7% on the year in July, narrowly beating an estimate of a 2.6% increase. While the uptick in retail figures was seen as a positive signal of stabilization in the Chinese economy, a slide in industrial production growth dampened market optimism.
    • China's industrial production rose just 5.1% in July from the previous year, slowing from the 5.3% increase in June and missing forecasts of 5.2% growth.
  • Still, tensions in the Middle East and the escalation of the Russian-Ukraine war, which pose supply risks, are underpinning the market.
  • Oil products initially picked up more than US$5 from previous week and gradually receded as the week ended on reports of weaker demand and ample supply that provided cap on prices:
    • The Asian gasoline market moved lower on higher crude prices and narrowing US RBOB-Brent crack amid weak summer demand.
    • The demand was also expected to be weaker in Vietnam and India in the near term amid the current monsoon period.
    • Additionally, on the supply side, ample availability was expected as refineries come back from maintenance and Middle East cargoes could be heading to Asia amid negative East-West arbitrage economics.
    • Fundamentals in the gasoil/diesel complex remained stable although supply was seen long amid weak demand due to monsoon in South Asia and Southeast Asia.
    • The flows of diesel from the US Gulf Coast to Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean have been increasing as the summer draws to a close, with July volumes hitting a record monthly high and August on track to beat it.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.51 to P57.13 from P57.64 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 20 August 2024, the oil companies implemented an increase of P1.00/liter for gasoline and kerosene while diesel has increased by P1.20/liter.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of gasoline and diesel stands at a net increase of P8.05/liter and P5.95/liter, respectively. On the other hand, kerosene has a total net decrease of P2.15/liter.

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1 Asia Pacific 16 August 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

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For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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