Oil Monitor as of 10 September 2024

 

WORLD OIL PRICES (September 2-6, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude decreased by around $3.40 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased week-on-week by about $4.80, $4.10 and $4.20 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil futures have settled lower on anticipated Libyan oil recovery, weak China and US economic data, offsetting the impact of delay in OPEC+ production hike and tight US inventories.
    • More than 0.5 million barrels/d of oil supply to return to the market after Libya’s two rival government resolved central bank disputes.
    • The OPEC+ alliance announced on September 5, that it will extend its 2.2 million b/d voluntary production cuts by two months to December amid concerns that rising supply could outstrip fledgling demand.
  • The Asian gasoline market fell on waning driving demand however weak crude prices and seasonal pickup in Asian demand in the coming months provided floor to the prices.
    • Looking ahead, the Asian gasoline market is expected to find support from the upcoming festival season, such as Golden Week in China and Diwali in India, as the monsoon season eases.
    • Moreover, Vietnam's National Day holidays were anticipated to bolster gasoline demand in the region along with reopening of schools after three months of break.
  • For gasoil, cracks rose indicating that firmer demand may materialize in the short term.
  • The upcoming Golden Week holidays Oct. 1-7 in China and the easing of monsoon rains in India by end September are also expected to bolster regional demand on gasoil/diesel market.
  • Russian oil product exports slumped amid the peak summer demand in the country. The country’s diesel exports in August fell by 16% to 670,000 b/d, the lowest since October 2023.
  • Looking forward, the onset of winter in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to ease the current supply glut as barrels remained trapped in the east amid unworkable east-west arbitrage.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.13 to P56.37 from P56.24 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 10 September 2024, the oil companies implemented a decrease of P1.55/liter for gasoline, P1.30/liter for diesel and P1.40/liter for kerosene.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of gasoline and diesel stands at a net increase of P5.85/liter and P3.05/liter, respectively, while kerosene has a total net decrease of P4.70/liter.

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1 Asia Pacific 06 September 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

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For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph